We Shall Overcome Redux
Well once again I am left with egg on my face over a prior prediction. It looks like that the Soldiers of Destiny will be invading NI after all. Almost ten years after the war, but I suppose better late than never (legion of the rear guard indeed). Obviously the pundits are doing overtime to get their opinions in here, and here. Odd that neither Irishelection.com or Cedar Lounge have anything, but quite possibly it may just be that they have real lives to attend to (update-Cedar Lounge's response here and Irish Election's here). Aside from the fact that I called it wrong most of my other points still stand. After claiming NI as their own for umpteen years I can't see why FF would give Dermot the brief. I hardly think the people whose votes you wish to gain would appreciate being considered foreigners whatever view Aer Lingus might take.
FF may have alot more money but SF have the people on the ground and know how to use them. Not only to canvas before an election but to maximize vote management. As noted previously FF and Bertie in particular need to check their ego and enforce some electoral discipline on their party. With the SDLP living on in one sort or another FF will not be able to get a clean sweep and a fresh start for their candidates. This will no doubt increase the sense of dissatisfaction among the more labor oriented members if the SDLP lives on as a fig leaf for FF during Westminster elections. One can least expect a portion of SDLP stalwarts to either push for a labor alternative or simply stay home, further dwindling the pool that FF want to draw from.
And though everyone knows that SF is the main target and the launch of FF up north is seen as a counter attack on the SF redoubt it remains to be seen as to whether FF have a stomach for a real fight where they find themselves (for once) in the position of underdog, or at least outsider. And as much as FF are flaunting the need for a normal centerist party that has a grasp of the economy they may be left feeling the odd man out when the Tiger cools. Also in the mix is the odd timing especially in regards to certain financial irregularities regarding the Teflon Taoiseach. Not that I'm the least cynical about the motive of politicians but then again Bertie would not be the first leader in history to announce a nice little war to alleviate domestic unease.
Then there are the issue of transfers. Empey's ill phrased complaint about FF aside the move does bring up another interesting issue, transfers. Previously the SDLP had enjoyed a degree of success from transfers, even and especially from unionists voters in concerted attempts to keep SF out. It will be something to look at during the next election cycle as to whether FF can successfully maintain the small n approach in certain areas that the SDLP was able to do. Or whether or not the argument of "vote for us to keep SF out" will fly when it's the Republic knocking on the door. Definitely a space to keep watching.
6 comments:
Don't feel too egg-faced on this one: nobody else has come up with a convincing explanation of Why? and Why now?
I find myself recalling my one and only conversation with Harold Wilson (then UK Prime Minister), during the October 1974 Election campaign. I commended a speech he had made on constitutional affairs (of which, typically, nothing subsequently came). He was very anxious to explain that the intention of the speech was not its content, but to head off an expected Opposition move.
On that basis, perhaps we should be thinking of "displacement strategy", or -- quite simply -- getting the drop on the enemy.
There's no scope for FG in NI (unless the party of the Treaty are looking to find an understanding with the Empeyites, which would take surreality to new levels). SF are a busted flush in the RoI, unless they can find a channel for transfers under PR. All we are left with is the Páirtí an Lucht Oibre: in which case is Gilmore seen as a credible threat, especially if he attempted some sub rosa footsie with the SDLP?
Like you (and everyone else in sight) I haven't got a handle on this one.
I feel that much like SF's "historic" decision on policing it was more a matter of when, not if. SF's performance in the ROI may have had an influence but I think that the tipping point was the Mahon inquiry.
I truly think that FF expected the SDLP to do the heavy lifting early on and that all they would have to do was move in for the kill. Though SF never obliged them by continually moving onward and upward until now. So they figured that once the Assembly was up and running and that SF were the back foot following elections that now was the time to strike.
Though if I'm not mistaken (and I very well could be) the next election in NI will when Gordon calls a general election and that means SDLP will still be running candidates. Though I would imagine that FF would be doing a bit more than sending Micheal McDowell up. But still it's not the clean break that would ideally suit Bertie.
As for SF being a spent force in the ROI. Hard to tell but the "election" of a Senator can harldy hurt them if they actually go back to their roots and keep nipping at the heels of FF and Labour (especially Labour) instead of going for the throat then they should be able to stem the hemmoraging in Dublin.
I don't see Labour as a threat in the North unless they work out an accord with your Labour. To be honest as the SDLP are the closest thing to a Labour Party that NI has I don't see a "New Labour" party really happening with the exception of a few discontented grassroot "radicals".
But then again what the hell do I know?
That's an excellent point you make at the end, and one I hadn't thought through at all. Of course SDLP must get at least some component of UUP/DUP votes in tight constituencies. Have to go away and think about the implications...
Malcolm, like yourcousin, I'm really not sure about the 'busted flush' narrative re SF. They lost one seat, they gained a Senate seat. I think it is very likely that they can remain within, admittedly a niche, somewhere between five and ten seats in the Dáil. Not huge, but as good as the WP or DL in latter years. They're here to stay, probably as a minor player for quite some time - and there are other factors, time will dim memories, as it did with the WP and there is always a constituency for a left of Labour vote. Not huge, but its there.
These dialogues by proxy can become quite odd.
My "blusted flush" notion ( and I don't claim more than that) is based on the hard-won reputation of being poor and bad losers this time round. Nor do I see long-term involvement in the Stormont talk-shop being a advantage, either side of the border (unless, of course, one side or the other flounces out over some affront to dignity: which is another of my 'notions').
SF has a severe problem in that there is, so far, no recognised route for transfers of votes. The example I keep pointing to is Donegal South West, where Pearse Doherty had one of the best SF votes in the country, 85% of the quota, as well as being 9% up on 2002. Yet, there was no way to crack the FF/FG hold on a three-seater.
Finally, I don't make as much as you two do over the Seanad seat: it was a stitch-up with Labour to give both Pearse Doherty and Alex White some kind of platform.
Malcolm,
I agree that the Seanad seat is nothing to get too excited over, but is still something (even if that somethings is a farce).
Transfers have been and will continue to be a problem for the foreseeable future as I don't see the Seanad pact leading to a more cordial relationship between SF and Lab. nationally.
Where I do see a hope for SF is that they at least took the bull by the horns after the loss and let the Southern membership voice their discontent and Grizzly owned up to his shortcomings. Rabbitte on the other hand tried to brag about what they had accomplished and sweep their failures under the carpet. Or at least mitigate them by claiming sole ownership of the post election Irish left.
I think part of the problem for both Labor and SF is that at best they are parties of discontent and the Celtic Tiger makes that a hard sell. In this last elections they both decided to drop the rabble rousing and try to suck up to FF/FG as government partners and were robustly rounded upon by the electorate for it(rightfully so in my opinion). By the next election things should have cooled down a bit in regards to the economy so Breakfastroll man may not be so inclined to vote for FF when it comes down it. Though we must also remember that there's more to the electorate than BRM. One gets the impression especially in regards to Labor's post election debate that he was the end all be all.
As for Stormont doing anything for SF. On this one I'm up in the air. I feel that so far Gildernew's performance has won the party some kudos for her handling of Foot and Mouth etc. as well as her fiscal prudence in regards to land sales. Ruane will have a harder time if the upcoming industrial actions do come. All in all though I think making even those hard decisions is a good thing as it shows that there's more to SF than just oppositional rhetoric. I don't know how it will rub the elecotrate, but then no one ever does.
I don't feel that Stormont is a temporary thing waiting to be shut down over another "gate" whatever it may be. The Big Man likes power and will never go back to rabble rousing in the political wilderness (not that he could if he wanted to). And the Provos, having decommissioned the armalite are now wedded to the ballot box for a long peace regardless of how their upcoming bout with FF goes.
On a totally unrelated note I'm curious about Mary Lou. Whats happened to her after the loss in Dublin Central? I've seen a few news releases as MEP on European issues but other than that nothing. Just curious is all.
yourcousin,
good question you pose. MLM is still active in Dublin Central. All SF stuff has her on it, etc, etc. AFAIK SF are still pushing her forward to retain the SF Euro seat and ultimately contest the DC seat in 2012.
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